By Brendan Swift
Five upcoming Australian films are predicted to gross more than $US20 million each at the US box office.
The forecasts are derived from the Hollywood Stock Exchange – an artificial money market owned by Cantor Fitzgerald which allows speculators to trade ‘movie stocks’ and ‘star bonds’ using imaginary dollars.
Several studies have underlined the accuracy of the HSX within certain limitations (see the August issue of INSIDEFILM for more about predicting box office returns).
Happy Feet 2 is predicted to be the biggest Australian film, taking well over $US100 million. The original remains the all-time biggest local film at the US box office after grossing almost $US200 million in 2006.
Despite a delay in filming, Dr George Miller’s next Mad Max installment, Fury Road, is predicted to be the next biggest film with more than $US70 million.
However, local favourites such as Mao’s Last Dancer and Bran Nue Dae – the biggest local hits in 2009 and 2010 respectively – are predicted to take less than $US2 million apiece.
The burgeoning list (see table below) also shows the influence of Omnilab Media, with five of the top seven films by predicted revenue backed by the local conglomerate. Dr George Miller’s Dr D Studios were launched in partnership with Omnilab.
The company’s biggest hit to date is the Jason Statham action-thriller The Bank Job, which took just under half of its $US64.8 million box office gross (or $US30.1 million) in the US.
The Killer Elite, which also stars Statham alongside Clive Owen and Robert de Niro, is predicted to make a similar amount in the US with $35.64 million.
HSX’s US box office predictions for Aus films
|
Film
|
Predicted 4-week box office ($USm)
|
Production House
|
US release date
|
|
Happy Feet 2
|
119.94
|
Dr D Studios
|
Nov 18, 2011
|
|
Mad Max 4: Fury Road
|
71.64
|
Dr D Studios
|
In development
|
|
Legend of the Guardians
|
59.98
|
Animal Logic
|
Sept 24, 2010
|
|
The Killer Elite
|
36.89
|
Omnilab Media
|
n/a
|
|
Sanctum 3D
|
22.26
|
Sanctum Australia
|
Feb 4, 2011
|
|
Tomorrow When the War Began
|
14.96
|
Omnilab Media
|
n/a
|
|
The Power of the Dark Crystal
|
12.11
|
Omnilab Media
|
n/a
|
|
The King’s Speech
|
4.80
|
See Saw Films
|
Nov 24, 2010
|
|
Animal Kingdom
|
1.97
|
Porchlight Films
|
Aug 13, 2010
|
|
Mao's Last Dancer
|
1.7
|
Last Dancer
|
Aug 20, 2010
|
|
Bran Nue Dae
|
1.48
|
Robyn Kershaw Productions
|
Sept 10, 2010
|
|
I Am You (aka In Her Skin)
|
0.49
|
Liberty Films International
|
n/a
|
Source: Hollywood Stock Exchange, August 11, 2010.