Disney’s Avatar: The Way of Water absolutely dominated cinemas in its opening weekend, capturing an 87 per cent market share.
The James Cameron blockbuster sequel, some 13 years in the making, opened to $14.7 million from a record 1,281 screens, or $16.6 million with previews.
While that opening gross is still behind that of other “post-pandemic” blockbusters, like Thor: Love and Thunder ($20.4 million) and Spider-Man: No Way Home ($26 million), exhibitors are confident about how the film will fare into the weeks ahead as holidays begin.
The 2009 original opened to $12.9 million, albeit on half the screens. Holding well for weeks on end, it went on to become the highest grossing film ever to be released in Australia at $115.8 million – so there may still be time for its follow up yet.
While not unanimous, reviews are mostly on the positive side, with the film sitting at 78 per cent ‘Certified Fresh’ on Rotten Tomatoes. Audience rating is higher, at 98 per cent, boding well for word-of-mouth.
Shot in New Zealand, the sequel has an estimated budget of between $US350-460 million. Asked how expensive the film was by GQ last month, Cameron replied “very fucking” and said to break even it would “have to be the third or fourth highest-grossing film in history”. The first film has the honour of the highest grossing film ever released, at $US2.9 billion.
Whether by that metric it is a “success” or a “failure”, much will be made of The Way of Water‘s box office performance; as an unashamedly theatrical, 3D spectacle it is widely seen as a barometer for the current health of cinemagoing.
In North America, The Way of Water grossed $US134 million, slightly short of $150M-$175 million projections. Globally it stands at $US435 million, with the biggest international market China at $US57.1 million.
The weekends up to Avatar‘s release in Australia have been among the slowest of the post-lockdown era, with few distributors game to release other new titles into the market, lest they be cannibalised.
Moving into the holidays, most exhibitors expect The Way of Water to pick up pace as the sole blockbuster, particularly as more people have time on their hands to watch a film with a 3 hour 12 minute-run time. Titles released on Boxing Day fall into counter-programming territory rather than direct competition; the public holiday will see family fare like Lyle, Lyle Crocodile and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish land, as well as more upscale adult titles like The Banshees of Inishirin and Whitney Houston: I Want To Dance With Somebody. On New Year’s Day, local drama Blueback will open, alongside Tom Hanks comedy-drama A Man Called Otto.
For IMAX Melbourne, The Way of Water 3D was its strongest opening of 2022, with 20 sold out sessions and 8,000 admissions; the one giant screen captured 1.6 per cent of the total national box office. Globally, IMAX has contributed to 11.2 per cent of earnings.
“We’re anticipating a long and successful run for the sequel – more than 12,000 pre-sale tickets are still to be used,” acting IMAX general manager Jeremy Fee tells IF.
Village Cinemas national programming manager Geoff Chard tells IF Avatar 2′s opening weekend was in line with expectations, but now that it is out of the way, all eyes are on the hold into week 2.
“Will it perform similarly to the first film and hold steady for 3 or 4 weeks? Only time will tell. The reviews are mostly positive, and the audience reactions and ratings are all pointing in the right direction.”
Majestic Cinemas CEO Kieren Dell regards the first weekend as solid “without being spectacular”, though was enthused to see 40 per cent of his sales in 3D, “which is a real positive compared to where 3D has been for a long time”.
“I think the slight softness from expectations (albeit the total national number was a good one), was mostly due to the length of the movie – less showtimes obviously, but also in this busy pre-Xmas period, with shopping and parties to do, it’s hard to find 3 and a half hours. As such, I expect it to do very well from Boxing Day, without too much competition in that genre,” he tells IF.
Alex Temesvari, GM of Sydney’s Hayden Orpheum Picture Palace, also found the film softer than anticipated, but hopes that is more to do with the time of year than the film itself.
“Our projected gross for the week is about in line with how the first film opened here in 2009 but it should be noted that film legged it out to become our third highest grossing film for a decade (and still remains our sixth best of all time).
“Those who have turned up so far have been giving us glowing feedback about both the film and the jaw dropping quality of our projection being we’re exclusively screening in HFR 3D being projected at 14 foot lamberts thanks to our new projector set up.
“I’m confident that the film will play extremely through the holidays, especially given there are no other big blockbuster films on offer,” he says.
Numero data puts the top 20 titles at $16.6 million, up a whopping 326 per cent on the previous.
Avatar: The Way of Water’s next best competition was Disney stablemate Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in its sixth weekend, which mustered $444,548, moving to $28.1 million.
Another Mouse House title, animation Strange World, took third position in its fourth frame. The film, while hardly reaching the heights expected of a Disney animation, has held steady the last few weeks, taking another $354,789 to move to $2.8 million.
Universal’s Christmas action comedy Violent Night fell 58 per cent in its third, capturing $260,682 to advance to $2.1 million, while Disney’s The Menu added $331,221 in its fourth, totaling $3.6 million.
Special Christmas screenings of Universal’s Love Actually ($128,168) and Disney’s Home Alone ($73,067) crept into the top 10, besting the second weekend of Paramount animation Tad the Explorer: The Mummy Adventure, which made just $60,181 to move to $260,428.
Audiences also took to a re-helping of the Universal’s How The Grinch Stole Christmas, which made $53,689, ahead of the eighth weekend of stablemate Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, now on $7.6 million after adding $48,918.
Still in the top 20 is Roadshow’s Seriously Red, which has reached $702,545 after four weekends.
Looking to the weekends ahead, Chard is optimistic about all titles, though notes they will still be over-shadowed by Avatar: The Way of Water.
“I Wanna Dance With Somebody and A Man Called Otto should appeal to the more upmarket and older crowd, and both Puss in Boots: The Last Wish and Lyle Lyle Crocodile have been extremely popular for school group bookings, so this should translate well into in-season ticket sales,” he says.
Dell predicts Puss in Boots will be the family film of choice, noting it may play to a slightly older Shrek fanbase. He’s also “quietly confident” about New Year films Blueback and A Man Called Otto.
“The first is a beautiful movie, with appropriate environmental themes, that should attract a family market as well as older viewers, and Tom Hanks looks to be in good form with the latter,” he says.
“The potential surprise packet might be M3gan on Jan 12 – the time will be ripe for a horror movie for teenagers, while hopefully the Whitney Houston biopic will appeal to the all-important older female audience from Boxing Day.”
Cinema Nova CEO Kristian Connelly is excited for Boxing Day, with Palme d’Or winner Triangle of Sadness and The Banshees of Inisherin having sold out advance screenings.
” January, while lighter in terms of features as compared to prior years, also holds some excellent ‘Nova titles’ including upscale movies The Fabelmans, Marcel The Shell…, Emily, Babylon and Tar. While I expect most of these will be wide releases due to star power, filmmaker expectation or a lack of available content, these films fit very nicely with what our audience enjoys,” he says.